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74 TUESDAY JANUARY 9, 1979 Beck has annualized firm generation on the basis of assuming future energy contracts with APCo will be based on demand charges established on an annual minimum 100% peak, 100% contract. This is conservative, since currently, demand charges are established monthly on a minimum 100% peak, 50% contract; however, the probability of a rise to 100% peak, 80% monthly contract is considered high. Contracting at 80% firm for 32,000 kw (EXHIBIT 12) permits a minimum demand charge base of 25,600, in 1985. Use of EXHIBIT 5 with 4 and 12 indicates average monthly demand charges from APCo could be reduced, from October thru June with such a contract. In addition, installation of time-of- operation controls for air conditioning and electric heating would extend this capability. Water flow to satisfy peak demand appears sufficient. LOADS AND RESOURCES Load and peak demand data for 1969 - 1977 show a 2.7 - 3.4% growth rate. The future load forecast in EXHIBIT 14 gives a 3.8 - 4.5% rate. The Electric Department forecast range is 2.7 - 3.0%. As Martinsville will continue buying power, only increase in peak demand affects project economics. DEVELOPMENT ARRANGEMENT A field trip was made into the proposed Ridgeway reservoir area. There has been little change since USGS maps were issued in 1964. It appears only one currently occupied home might be affected by the proposed water level of 639 feet above sea level. Land use is predominately trees and brush with some farmland and pasture. POWER STUDIES Power studies (EXHIBITS 1 - 11) reflect previous comments under Hydrology. Monthly firm energy conforms closely to historical peaks. Demand would be satisfied by inflow and storage when necessary. Inflow in excess of firm demand would be used to generate secondary energy, when the reservoir is full. Spill would occur only with a full reservoir and inflow greater than maximum hydraulic capacity of the generators. IMPACT - PEOPLE A study conducted to estimate the annual loss of real estate tax revenue to Henry County resulting from the construction of the Ridgeway project indicates the loss approximates $12-15,000. However, it is believed the areas near the reservoir would develop, as has been the case elsewhere, and actually create additional tax revenue. The Virginia Department of Conservation and Development has estimated land values will increase as much as tenfold in the vicinity of the reservoir and it would attract an annual visitation of 1,000,000 recreation seekers. ESTIMATED CONSTRUCTION COSTS AND SCHEDULE The elements of this section of the Beck Report are considered adequate. The effect of a 10% error ($44,000,000 project cost) is considered in the next section.