Agenda 12/02/2004 - Laserfiche WebLink

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Page Throe November 30, 2004 produced a lower error rate than the other models in predicting the inmate population for May04 - August04. Additionally Linear Regression was the model used by our architects in predicting future inmate populations during our initial work on a regional jail. This model produced a 2.1% as compared to actual for 2002 and an 11.2% error for 2003 and was completed in 1996 fully six and seven years prior to the actual dates. Using the data from 2001 to 2004 and the Excel linear regression analysis calculation I developed a prediction on the number of inmates through 2018. As you can see from attachment 2 the results when using that data result in a substantially reduced number of inmates. This model predicts 160 inmates for the City by December 2018 as compared to the 243 contained in the study. This number is only 3 mom inmates than our largest number, which occurred in October 2003. Thus, by my calculations I see no justification for increasing our number of bed spaces at this time. Regardless of the above we will assume we need the number of beds forecast in the study. The study estimates the cost for building a facility is $112,000 per bed. Even if the state provides 50% of the funding the cost to the City would still be $56,000 per bed. We built "building 2" for under $500,000. This facility is rated for 30 inmates and we can house 48 and still meet state standards. If we only house 30 inmates the cost per bed would be $16,667. If we house 48 (which we do) the cost per bed is only $10,417. Using that amount and inflating it by 3% from 1998 - 2004 would give a current cost of $12,812. Assuming we need as many additional beds as the study forecasts (115) through 2018 if we built the same type of facility we would only have to spend $1,473,380. This compares to the $6,440,000 contained in the study to build the same number of beds. Moving to the operational costs we see the estimated cost per inmate day of the p/'oposed facility is $63.08. This compares very unfavorably to the City of Martinsville's cost of $44.85 per day as contained in the FY 2003 jail cost report. Operational cost of any regional type operation will not be controllable by the City. One example of this can be found on page 41 of the study. In the section called programs it states this facility will offer many programs not available in our jail. These programs have a cost and if the majority of the board agrees to have these programs the City will have no choice but to participate and pay our share of the expenses. The result will be increased operating costs over what we are now paying. An example we are seeing now is at the W.W. Moore detention center where the City is being charge almost $200,000 a year for 5 bed spaces. In conclusion it is my recommendation to accept the invitation to join the study if the City can only pay for the planning study and withdraw from participation at the end of that study. This could cost the City as much as $15,667. If Council is not willing to expend that much for a study you can recommend not to participate based on a review of the data. This review shows the City currently has no overcrowding