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Cost and Capacity of a proposed Regional Jarl serving Pittsylvania, Franklin, <br /> Henry, and Patrick Counties and the Cities of Danville and Martinsville <br /> <br />The forecast produced by the four models were compared to the actual population <br />for March - June 2004. The results of that analysis are presented below. <br /> <br /> Comparison of Forecast "Fits" <br />Statistic Exponential <br /> Actual Smoothing Box-Jenkins Linear <br /> <br /> Holt (1,1,1)*(1,1,1) (1,1,0)*(0,1,1) Regression <br />May 152.9 163 156.7 159 155.4 <br />June 155.2 163.6 156.2 159.2 156.4 <br />July 151.6 164.3 151.8 153 157.5 <br />August 145.9 '164.9 154.8 153 158.5 <br />Average 151.4 164.0 154.9 156.1 157.0 <br />Forecast <br />Comparison n/a 8.3% 2.3% 3.1% 3.7% <br /> <br />Based on the model statistics and the comparison of the forecast "fits", the Box- <br />Jenkins (1,1,0)*(0,1,1) model was selected as the model for the Franklin County <br />inmate forecast. The forecast using the Box-Jenkins (1,1,0)*(0,1,1) and the linear <br />regression models are shown in the graph below: <br /> <br />250 <br /> <br />Powell Consulting Services 7 October 25, 2004 <br /> <br /> <br />